Prediction markets allow you to buy into the probability of future events occurring. Much simpler to use than people give them credit for; this can then be sold later like a stock or share. Yet they don’t just solely apply to sport, and can also cover the world of entertainment. This allows them to be used on everything from movie awards to guessing viewer ratings for streaming services.
What Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets are also referred to as event contracts. They exist in a realm between betting and investment, with their legal standing, in the US at least, hotly contested regarding both. Essentially, they let you buy and sell contracts based on future events. The value of these is not set by bookmaker odds. Instead, it is set by supply and demand on a peer-to-peer exchange.
Most of these are binary contracts, meaning they are based on a yes or no answer. The value of contracts generally reflects their probability, so one bought at $0.50 implies a 50% chance of the event occurring.
These can be bought and sold at any time. So if you bet on the Oscars winner, and more information came out that made it more likely, the value may rise to $70, at which point you could sell for a profit.
When you scout down a list of prediction markets, you will see many focused on sports and politics. Yet they can be bought and sold based on any events, including popular culture. This even includes movie-related queries and the recipients of certain awards.
This Year’s Oscars and Prediction Markets
A great way to see what options were available on key movie events is to look at the 2026 Oscars, which took place in March. The top three contenders for best picture included One Battle After Another, Hamnet, and Sinners.
Going live on Kalshi, they had diverged by September, with One Battle or Another rising to over 69%, while Hamnet dropped to a 17.3% chance. Before the event, the former surged in value and eventually won, while the latter dropped off.
Meanwhile, Polymarket has already begun to open its markets for the 99th Academy Awards. This is primarily based on which film will get the most Oscar nominations. At the time of writing, The Odyssey stands at 47% while Dune: Messiah is ranking at 31%.
Alternative Entertainment Categories on Prediction Markets
Source: Pexels
Entertainment categories are not just limited to the Oscars. Predictions are already available for the Cannes Film Festival, with the Palme d’ Or Winner category fielding candidates such as Minotaur and All of a Sudden. Other movie-related predictions include weekend box office take for The Mandalorian and Grogu, along with who will be the next actor to play James Bond.
If you want to try prediction markets, then signing up is easy. Do your research, and remember that all investments, gambling, or prediction markets carry a risk. From here, find a category you are interested in, and you may just be able to predict some movie-related outcomes.
